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Therapeutic Topics_
Large Cap Pharma_
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AstraZeneca

  • Despite positive 2nd line lung cancer phase III, ADC Dato-DXd may struggle to better standard of care in 1st line

  • Depsite positve phase III  in EGFR sapce from JNJ, Tagrisoo should be able to fend off competition from JNJ 1st line Rybrevant+ lazertinib

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Bristol Myers Squibb

  • Large Cell Lymphoma - Breyanzi beats the competition, harder for Roche to retake

  • Stroke prevention - Milvexian potential not recognised by street (JV with JNJ)

  • Good prospects in $3bn UC market for Zeposia

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Pfizer

  • Pneumococcal Respiratory vaccine - street overestimating paediatric prospects (MRK better)

  • RSV much smaller than expectation due to AZN/SAN competition

  • But good prospects in $3bn bowel disease and $3b hair loss opportunity

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Johnson & Johnson

  • JNJ2113 oral IL23 may struggle to beat new oral classes in Psoriasis and ulcerative colitis

  • Stroke prevention – Milvexian’s massive potential not recognised by market (JV with BMY)

  • CARVYKTI Likely to ward off off-the-shelf bispecific competition in BCMA Myeloma

  • Differentiated in Myasthenia and bladder cancer device

  • Faces disruption to Ulcerative Colitis (UC) inflammation market 

  • Despite positve phase III Mariposa trial, Rybrevant + lazertinib may struggle to topple incumbent Tagrisso 

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Bayer

  • Stroke prevention – Factor XI appears wrongly written off by street

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Merck

  • PAH Sotatercept has even more upside in heart failure

  • ADC TROP2 may only get niche setting

  • TL1A may struggle to separte form the pack

  • +Moderna cancer vax + Keytruda efficacy may be flattered by poor Keytruda control and baseline imbalances

  • oral PCSK9 upside in primary prevention challenging

  • Poor TIGIT prospects for Merck and Arcus

  • But May take some of $4bn paediatric pneumococcal vax market from PFE

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Novartis

  • Winning the $10bn+ early stage breast cancer market, beating LLY in both stage II and III

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Lilly

  • Faces better in class competition in:

  • Early stage breast cancer (NOVN)

  • New hair loss market (BMY)

  • Faces disruption to oral UC inflammation market (PFE+BMY)

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Roche

  • Likely to be monopoly in new Duchenne muscular dystrophy (with Sarepta)

  • Likely to struggle to regain lymphoma leadership

  • ASCO TIGIT liver data not reliable

Biotech_
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  • Aficamten data not as rosy as it may appears, with similar REMS likely

Cytokinetics
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  • Despite SRPT phase III headline, FDA approval likely to remain intact

  • litle competition between Sarepta and Capricor

Sarepta & Capricor
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  • Strong competition from JNJ’s TAR-200 in bladder cancer

Urogen
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  • Despite positive data from WCLC23, ADC Trodelvy may struggle to better standard of care in 1st line lung cacner

GILD
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  • JNJ2113 oral IL23 may struggle to beat new oral classes in Psoriasis and ulcerative colitis

Protagonist
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  • +Moderna cancer vax + Keytruda efficacy may be flattered by poor Keytruda control and baseline imbalances

Moderna
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  • Don't write Seralutinib off. Subgroup efficacy, may lead to phase III success

Gossamer Bio
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  • CAR-T looks promising in BCMA

Arcellx
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