Foveal LLP Independent Investment Research Foveal Research

Bristol Myers positive Phase 3 ALOFT-IPF result is an important development, but does it establish a commercially competitive IPF franchise? Our latest research examines whether admilparant can differentiate against an increasingly demanding competitive landscape,

Vaxcyte’s pivotal OPUS-1 readout by the end of October is not a simple 31/31 pass/fail event. Management has already framed several expected serotype misses, so the stock debate is whether VAX-31 can deliver a meaningfully better-than-guided profile versus merely protecting adult value already embedded in PCVX’s valuation. Our latest report focuses on where the readout could surprise positively or negatively, how likely those outcomes are, how much they matter commercially, a

Pelacarsen’s HORIZON failure materially raises the burden of proof for the Lp(a) class, but we think the investment question for Amgen now shifts from the headline failure to whether the eventual dataset supports a class-wide read-through or leaves room for olpasiran differentiation. Our latest work frames the key clinical and trial-design debates that will determine how much of the HORIZON outcome should be reflected in Amgen’s risk–reward ahead of OCEAN(a), and where curren

Ahead of BMY’s SUCCESSOR-2 late-breaker at ASCO next weekend, our mezigdomide report examins whether the market is still too conservative on its clinical and commercial relevance in post-lenalidomide relapse. Our focus is less on whether the programme has activity at all, and more on whether the current framing understates its potential to drive a more meaningful backbone reset if Phase III superiority and commercial uptake prove sufficient.

Ahead of BMY’s SUCCESSOR-2 late-breaker at ASCO next weekend, our mezigdomide report examins whether the market is still too conservative on its clinical and commercial relevance in post-lenalidomide relapse. Our focus is less on whether the programme has activity at all, and more on whether the current framing understates its potential to drive a more meaningful backbone reset if Phase III superiority and commercial uptake prove sufficient.

Our latest detailed adjuvant SERDs analsyis reveals a potential mispricing emerging between Roche and AstraZeneca, with the market potentially extrapolating lidERA into a broader commercial opportunity than is warranted,

Ahead of the 2H26 Alzheimer’s ADEPT-2 Cobenfy phase III readout, our new report focuses on a simple question: is the market framing the programme too conservatively relative to its clinical and commercial potential?

Ahead of ARWR’s phase III SHASTA-3/4 in 3Q26, we have published a new in-depth report on the ARWR/IONS sHTG debate, challenging the view that Ionis is comfortably ahead...

Ahead of VRTX’s phase III RAINIER readout in IgAN (est. mid 2026), povetacicept is currently being viewed as though it is structurally differentiated...

Following Bayer’s full Phase 3 Factor XIa stroke readout, the market appears to be positioning BMY/JNJ’s milvexian as a structurally disadvantaged, late entrant. The central debate is whether differentiation remains plausible or whether share is effectively locked. Our work suggests the probability of clinically meaningful separation is not being fully reflected in positioning, creating asymmetric equity implications across BMY-BAYN in a multi-billion-dollar stroke market,

Ahead of CNTA’s ORX750 phase 2 data and after the recent publication of Takeda’s orexin agonist oveporexton (TAK-861) two phase 3 trials, interest in competitor orexin agonists from CNTA and ALKS in both narcolepsy type I (NT1), as well as related narcolepsy type II (NT2) and hyper insomnia, have come back into focus. We undertake an in-depth analysis of the current orexin agonist efficacy and safety data to make a like-for-like comparison of oveporexton with Centessa’s ve