Ahead of VRTX’s phase III RAINIER readout in IgAN (est. mid 2026), povetacicept is currently being viewed as though it is structurally differentiated on the back of the highest headline uPCR reductions seen. Our report, however, finds that this perceived superiority may not be as differentiated as street expectations, leaving downside risk for the RAINIER readout,  and that competitive pressure is likely to be materially stronger than consensus expects. NVS’s Fabhalta’s FDA approval and oral convenience appear underappreciated, while Otsuka’s FDA-approved Voyxact is inappropriately being view a less effective. We see expectations stretched for VRTX’s povetacicept and VERA’s atacicept, while Fabhalta and Voyxact appear conservatively priced, creating asymmetric positioning ahead of the confirmatory 2026 catalysts.