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Foveal LLP Independent Investment Research Foveal Research

prescient biotech & pharma global equity research

Independent Investment Research

Market Commentary List

IgAN: VRTX/VERA/NVS/Otsuka: RAINIER Asymmetric Risk Into the upcoming 2026 phase III

Is perceived differentiation real—or simply optical?

BMY/BAYN/JNJ Factor XI: Is the Market Mispricing Milvexian? Stroke valuation leverage underappreciated. AF optionality overlooked

AF treated as zero — appropriately?

MRK/MRNA: Concerns over V940 cancer vax Ph3 remain, despite KN942 Ph2 5-year headline RFS maintenance

Headline data may be due to pretrial imbalances between arms

Lipoprotein (a)- NVS/IONS/AMGN/LLY/SLN: Hi Amit, Upcoming 1H26 Cholesterol-busting LPa drugs likely to lead new multibillion cardiovascular breakthrough

Upcoming LPa cholesterol trial may unlock untapped multi-billion market

RARE/MREO: Imminent ORBIT trial results likely positive

OI bone strength gains surpass age-related expectations

BAYN/BMY: As predicted, Factor XI reduces stroke: will BMY do it too, and what's the opportunity?

As expected, Factor XI heralds a new class for stroke prevention

MRK: As predicted, Winrevair in PH group 2 CADENCE is positive. What's the opportunity?

As expected, Winrevair CADENCE is positive in wider Pul HT

Optimism for Factor XI in stroke unchanged despite expected BMY/JNJ failure in heart attacks

Don't write off Factor XIs despite heart attack and AF failures

CNTA: Differentiation challenges for ORX750 orexin despite expected efficacy in early phase 2

Threading the ever-narrowing orexin needle

BMY/JNJ: Hi Amit, YE25 competitor Factor XI stroke trial may surprise, bringing milvexian back into focus

Don't Write off Factor XIs!

NOVN's Sjögren’s P3 win unlikely to be bettered by AMGN or JNJ

Difficult hurdles for Sjögren’s competitors.

AZN/DAIICHI: Dato-DXD doubts for 2026 AVANZAR lung Phase III

Uncertainties about effectiveness of Dato-DXD in lung

IgAN- VERA/Otsuka/VRTX/NOVN: Hi Amit, Fabhalta spoils the BAFF/APRIL party

As predicted, FDA apporved orla Fabhalta spoils the BAFF/APRIL party

CNTA/ALKS/Takeda: Differentiation challenges for ORX750 orexin agonist vs Takeda in NT1&2, despite clean phase 1

Threading the narrowing orexin needle

RARE/MREO: ORBIT UX143 P2 improvements NOT solely due to natural progress seen with age

OI bone strength gains surpass age-related expectations

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