Pelacarsen’s HORIZON failure materially raises the burden of proof for the Lp(a) class, but we think the investment question for Amgen now shifts from the headline failure to whether the eventual dataset supports a class-wide read-through or leaves room for olpasiran differentiation. Our latest work frames the key clinical and trial-design debates that will determine how much of the HORIZON outcome should be reflected in Amgen’s risk–reward ahead of OCEAN(a), and where current positioning may be too aggressive in either direction.