BMY/BAYN/JNJ Factor XI: Is the Market Mispricing Milvexian? Stroke valuation leverage underappreciated. AF optionality overlooked

Following Bayer’s full Phase 3 Factor XIa stroke readout, the market appears to be positioning BMY/JNJ’s milvexian as a structurally disadvantaged, late entrant. The central debate is whether differentiation remains plausible or whether share is effectively locked. Our work suggests the probability of clinically meaningful separation is not being fully reflected in positioning, creating asymmetric equity implications across BMY-BAYN in a multi-billion-dollar stroke market, with additional optionality in AF that is currently treated as zero.

We address:

·         Is BMY/JNJ’s milvexian appropriately discounted as a late entrant, or does data justify a materially different valuation framework?

·         Is BMY/JNJ’s AF program correctly treated as a zero-value asset post-class disappointment (OCEANIC-AF failure), or does its design preserve meaningful convexity that is not embedded in current models?

·         Is once-daily dosing a defensible structural advantage for BAYN?

·         What proportion of the non-cardioembolic stroke population is commercially addressable under the trial inclusion criteria?